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Ukraine's failure is a certainty.
UKRAINE’S FAILURE IS A CERTAINTY
There is no need to write about the physical destruction of Ukraine. That is well known. What is not known, is the death toll. It is most widely accepted that Russia used about 5 times as much ordinance as Ukraine. They leads me to guess that Ukraine has 5 times as many casualties, my best guess is over a half a million dead and 2 or 3 times as many injured. Zelensky’s Ukraine has nothing to show for its troubles other than losses. The country is broken, its best and brightest are living in other countries. This war has been an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine. There has been zero upside for the unoccupied (or western leaning) part of the country.
Ukraine’s Nationalist Cause
Many Ukrainian nationalist see Russia as a former imperialist oppressor. Ergo they see Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens as a potential problem. Russian speakers are seen as having too much cultural affinity with Russia, via language, religion, customs and politics. We can use two maps to give us a rough sketch of the magnitude of this ‘Russian’ problem.
The first map, from Wikipedia, gives a geographical picture of the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election, (it includes Crimea). The blue candidate was Viktor Yanukovych, a member of the pro-Russian Party of Regions. The red candidate was Yulia Tymoshenko, a member of the All-Ukrainian Union ‘Fatherland’ political party. A cursory glance tells us that the blue candidate votes are primarily from the east and south of the country.
The blue portion of the map above is dominated by voters who are at the very least, not anti-Russian. That does not mean that they are Russian separatists or even anti-Ukrainian.
The next map below was very difficult to select. There is a lot of propaganda about language use in Ukraine. The last full census of Ukraine was in 2001. It put the ethnic Russian population at 17% and Russian language use at 30%.
The above map is from a BBC report entitled UKRAINE’S SHARP DIVISIONS (April 2014). The reality is that Ukraine is bilingual. The above charts do not prove anything. I present them to illustrate that there are divisions in Ukraine. This is not commonly understood in the west.
Ukrainian nationalists want Ukraine to have a single cultural identity and language. They have set about this task by actively demoting all things Russian. This has been an ongoing and accelerating process. Specific pre-war legislation (2017, 2019, and 2021) clearly oppresses the Russian language in the education system and in print media. Since the war began Ukraine has banned Russian performing artists and Russian books (removing them from libraries etc.).
Since the beginning of the war Ukraine has banned the political activities of 11 political parties that it deems to be pro-Russian. These parties represent about 20% of the 2019 electorate. More recently Ukraine banned religious organizations affiliated to Russia, namely the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.
If Zelensky’s Ukraine were to succeed in recapturing its lost territories it would need to re-impose its de-Russification laws on the natives. Laws pertaining to language use, political organization and religious association would need to be enforced. That may not be a very enticing prospect for the locals in Crimea and Donbas etc. Americans and Europeans have a lot in common with the ethno-Russian Ukrainians. They want to use their preferred language, practice their religion and vote for whomever they choose. These rights are not on offer in Zelensky’s part of Ukraine. They are on offer in Putin’s part of Ukraine.
The truth is that many ethno-Russian Ukrainians do not feel welcome in Zelensky’s Ukraine and they welcome Russian ‘liberation’. The Russian army is not the only reason that Zelensky’s Ukraine will continue to fail. Clearly some Ukrainians welcome and support the Russian army.
A Silver Lining.
The only success story I can find in the Ukraine war concerns those Ukrainian who moved to other European nations. See below a section of the Ukrainian crowd celebrating a goal scored against Scotland during a World Cup 2022 qualifying match in Scotland three months after the war began (June 2022).
These fighting age adults are probably part of the estimated 7m Ukrainian refugees recorded globally by the UN as of July 2024. It is a fair assumption to say that generally speaking, the rights and opportunities on offer in the rich west are superior to those available in pre-war Ukraine. Eurostat estimates that there are about 1.5m men of fighting age (18-64) living as refugees outside of Ukraine. Given that Ukraine is fighting for equal rights and western values etc. we should probably add women to this number.
As I look into the faces in the crowd I can’t help but wonder who they are. Are they Russian speakers from the captured / liberated territories? Are they Ukrainian speakers and nationalist? Are they deserters? Have they lost everything they ever had at home and are just trying to rebuild a better life in the west? Have they lost nothing at all and are just trying to build a better life in the west?
We can be confident about one thing. If there are winners in this conflict, many of them will be found comfortably nestling in the west.
THE EUROPEAN DELUSION
As you would expect, the average European citizen hasn’t the foggiest notion of what this conflict is about. They just believe what they are guided to believe. The real drivers of European policy in relation to this conflict are unknown to them.
Sometimes a picture tells its own story. The photo below features Kaja Kallas, the former prime minister of Estonia. She is currently the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
Kallas has adopted a very ‘Estonian’ stance against Russia and has advocated for a more aggressive military posture from the EU. Similar to Ukraine, Estonia has a sizable ethno-Russian grouping within the country and just like in Ukraine the ethno-Russians are being made to feel most unwelcome in their own country. Estonia has gone one step further than Ukraine. A loss of voting rights have been added to language and religious restrictions.
Europe’s leaders are now telling us that we must be fearful of Russia. Apparently Russia wants to attack us, so we need to spend more money on weapons and prepare for war. This is patent nonsense and a waste of money. They want us to believe that we need to spend almost a Trillion Dollars on the arms industry to prevent Russia from attacking us. The European commission’s ReArm Europe plan appears to be the only game in town. It appears as though the idea of having a peaceful and prosperous relationship with the Russian Federation is simply inconceivable! Even at minimum, offering ethno-Russian citizens of the European Union (Estonia) the same basic rights as the rest of us is out of the question.
Europe’s unconditional support of Ukraine has achieved nothing and cost a fortune. It is hard to think of any possible advantage or gain that has accrued to Europe.
